the_buzz
Bitcoin prediction bake-off: random forest vs a fruit-fly-connectome network.
Neurons are simulated — leaky integrate-and-fire or better — with documented, tuned parameters.
Dispute this rating →The evidence
No evidence, no level.The reservoir state evolves under a leaky-tanh update with a stated leak rate; the same W is reused verbatim at every step and never assigned to.
https://github.com/TropiFloAI/the_buzz/blob/2339152a73712505c8086b069600090f34746a93/esn_model.py#L174-L185The only trained parameter is the linear readout w_out, obtained by a closed-form ridge regression solve.
https://github.com/TropiFloAI/the_buzz/blob/2339152a73712505c8086b069600090f34746a93/esn_model.py#L187-L196The connectome edges are log1p-transformed, row-normalised and rescaled to a target spectral radius, discarding synapse counts and neurotransmitter sign; the resulting W is returned fixed.
https://github.com/TropiFloAI/the_buzz/blob/2339152a73712505c8086b069600090f34746a93/esn_model.py#L92-L119
The FlyWire adjacency matrix becomes the recurrent reservoir of an echo state network whose state evolves under a documented leaky-tanh update with declared leak rate (0.7-0.9), spectral radius (0.9) and input scaling, which is the same class of simplified rate unit the scale credits at L1. This is the weakest form of L1: there is no membrane potential, no spiking, no refractory period, and the neurotransmitter signs are discarded entirely - edge weights are log1p-transformed, row-normalised and rescaled, leaving an all-positive reservoir. Not L2: the reservoir matrix W is built once and never written again, and the only thing fitted is the linear output vector w_out, solved in closed form by ridge regression - a trained readout on a frozen graph, exactly the pattern the scale calls out. Rate the simulation, not the backtest: the headline +4.32% versus +3.78% for the degree-preserving rewired control is a single 1.4-day test window and is not evidence of anything on this scale.
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